Air cargo buyers are walking away from long-term capacity deals. Three-month agreements accounted for 60% of new contracts effective in Q3 2026, up from 47% the prior quarter, while 12-month deals fell from 40% to 25% of new business year-over-year, according to Xeneta data. Shippers want pricing that moves with the market, not rates locked in before the next shock.
Global average spot rates hit $3.10 per kilogram in September, up 27% year-over-year. Jet fuel pressure from Brent crude trading above $100 in early September keeps pushing costs higher. Yet rates on the major North America corridors tell a more nuanced story: Northeast Asia routes are up 34% since late February, Southeast Asia up 29%, while Europe-North America has actually pulled back from February highs. The divergence reflects shifting e-commerce flows and seasonal belly capacity reductions.
At a Glance
- 60% of new air freight contracts in Q3 2026 ran three months, versus 47% in Q2.
- 12-month contracts fell from 40% to 25% of new deals year-over-year.
- Global average spot rate hit $3.10 per kilogram in September, up 27% YoY.
- September air cargo demand rose 6% YoY, with full-year demand tracking near 4% growth.
- Elevated jet fuel costs, tied to Brent crude above $100 in early September, continue to push rates higher.
Why Shippers Want Short Contracts
The shift toward three-month deals reflects a lack of trust in long-range rate predictions. "A one-year fixed rate deal doesn't fit the current conditions," van de Wouw said. Shippers are looking for mechanisms that add flexibility and help ensure commercial terms hold across the year.
Conflict-related jet fuel pressure, potential tariff changes, and ocean unreliability all feed that uncertainty. The ocean wildcard looms largest: when ocean becomes this unreliable and this expensive, some volume moves to air. September data has not yet shown that shift, but it is the factor the market is watching most closely.
The corridor picture matters. Southeast Asia to North America sat flat month-over-month at $6.12 per kilogram. Northeast Asia to North America rose 5% to $6.03 per kilogram. Europe to North America ticked up 2% to $2.30 per kilogram. Each lane responds to different supply-demand drivers, so lumping them together obscures real tactical decisions.
Who Should Care
| Shipper Profile | Recommendation |
|---|---|
| High-volume, multiple forwarders | Adopt three-month standard; re-price quarterly against Xeneta or TAC index |
| Mid-volume, one preferred forwarder | Negotiate 12-month deal with full spot-index adjustment clause, not fuel-only |
| Low-volume, limited staff | Build adjustment triggers into any annual deal; do not chase pure spot without capacity guarantees |
Our Analysis
The pattern fits a wider freight market that has stopped rewarding loyalty. Short ocean contracts, flexible trucking spot exposure, and now short air deals all point the same direction: buyers want optionality. Carriers lose the pricing stability annual contracts used to provide.
Large shippers with in-house contract teams and volume to keep multiple forwarders warm benefit most. Small and mid-sized buyers who lack staff to manage quarterly renegotiations lose ground. Carriers that depended on a stable forwarder book face a tougher commercial environment.
The risk for shippers is that three-month terms also mean three-month carrier hunting. In a tight market, you may not get the lift you need when everyone is doing the same thing.
Bottom Line
Lock long only when you must, and never without an adjustment clause tied to the monthly spot index—not fuel alone. The freight market is telling buyers to stay flexible, and the airlines are listening.
Key takeaways
- Three-month contracts now dominate: 60% of new Q3 2026 deals, up from 47% in Q2.
- Build rate-adjustment mechanisms into any air freight contract longer than six months.
- Lane-level data varies sharply; benchmark each corridor separately against the spot index.
- Treat ocean reliability as a leading indicator for potential air volume shifts.
- Keep at least one backup forwarder active so quarterly switches remain realistic.
Frequently asked questions
Why are air freight contracts getting shorter?
Shippers want flexibility because jet fuel costs, trade policy uncertainty, and ocean reliability issues create rapid rate swings. Long fixed deals leave buyers exposed if spot prices shift after signing.
How much have air freight spot rates risen?
The global average spot rate reached $3.10 per kilogram in September, representing a 27% year-over-year increase according to Xeneta data.
What lane saw the biggest spot rate jump?
Northeast Asia to North America rose 34% from late February to mid-September, the largest swing among the major corridors. Southeast Asia to North America was up 29%, while Europe to North America actually fell slightly in that window.
Is this trend likely to continue?
The air freight market is forecast to remain on track for about 4% year-over-year demand growth. Proposed tariff changes and continued ocean unreliability mean volatility is likely to persist, keeping shippers cautious about long-term commitments.