North American Intermodal Growth Outpaces CN’s Volume Drop

Last updated: November 4, 2026

North America’s four major containerised rail operators reported stronger intermodal revenue over the three months to October, but their underlying performance diverged. Union Pacific, CSX and Canadian Pacific Kansas City posted volume growth, while Canadian National lost containers and relied on higher revenue per unit to cushion the decline.

The contrast offers a practical lesson: intermodal revenue can rise even when traffic falls, but the signal for shippers depends on whether growth comes from more cargo, better pricing, or both.

Strong demand meets constrained trucking

The common driver was stronger domestic freight demand and continued tightening in the trucking market. With highway capacity under pressure, rail operators had greater opportunities to attract freight and conversions from the road.

Union Pacific was the clear revenue-growth leader, reporting a 27% increase to $1.52bn as volumes rose 11%. The company specifically linked its performance to reduced trucking capacity. Management also said it had deployed buffer resources and unstacked containers to respond to the improving market.

That expansion did not come without operating pressure. UP’s intermodal service performance index finished the quarter at 92% despite the 11% volume increase. The combination matters for shippers: a carrier can absorb more containers while service performance weakens, making the balance between capacity and reliability a key issue to watch.

International intermodal volumes improved 8%, driven by west coast imports and business wins. UP also reported strength in auto parts, although continued automotive market softness was offset by business wins.

CSX similarly attributed part of its performance to the tighter trucking environment. Its intermodal revenue increased 20% to $634m as volumes climbed 7% to 820,000 units. Management said conversions from the highway remained strong, while new service offerings through Birmingham, Myrtlewood, Baltimore and other areas were attracting business.

CSX’s international volumes were relatively flat, however. The completed double-stack clearances through Baltimore’s Howard Street Tunnel nevertheless created another route to attract traffic.

Why Canadian National moved differently

Canadian National was the only major carrier to report lower box volumes. Traffic fell 6% to 542,000 TEU as declines through Halifax and Prince Rupert outweighed stronger volumes through Vancouver.

Revenue nevertheless rose 9% to $765m. CN’s reported income per RTM increased 12% to slightly more than $6, helping offset the reduction in traffic. That distinction is central to reading the quarter: revenue growth does not necessarily indicate stronger demand when the revenue earned per unit of capacity is rising.

The carriers also report volumes using different measures, including carloads, units and TEU. Their figures should therefore be treated as directional evidence rather than directly interchangeable counts.

The acquisition fight adds another layer

CPKC’s results came alongside its latest attempt to derail Union Pacific’s proposed purchase of Norfolk Southern. In a 30 October submission to the US Surface Transportation Board, CP urged the regulator to terminate its review.

CP alleged that UP’s campaign for approval had intimidated shippers and compromised the integrity of the proceeding. Its argument was not confined to the usual questions about rates and competitive routes. It focused on whether the board could reach a trustworthy decision when shippers dependent on the applicants felt unable to testify against them.

That concern is significant for shippers because procedural confidence can shape negotiations before a regulatory decision is reached. The interim winners are rail operators benefiting from tighter trucking and stronger conversion demand. The potential losers are not necessarily identified by the quarter’s volume figures: shippers face service pressure, pricing uncertainty and a consolidation dispute that could affect their future network options.

Decision checklist for shippers

Shippers evaluating intermodal capacity should assess:

• Total lane economics:** Compare the complete cost of an inland-terminal or port move rather than relying on headline rail pricing.
• Service performance:** Review recent operating results, particularly when a carrier is adding volumes or resources.
• Gateway exposure:** Consider how performance across Vancouver, Halifax, Prince Rupert and other ports affects the resilience of the route.
• Highway alternatives:** Reassess road capacity and renewal pricing as trucking conditions change.
• Regulatory exposure:** Account for uncertainty surrounding Union Pacific’s proposed Norfolk Southern acquisition when comparing network options.

The key is not to extrapolate one strong quarter indefinitely. Revenue gains supported by tighter trucking capacity may face a different test when that constraint eases. Shippers should instead combine cost, service, gateway mix and regulatory developments in each lane decision.

What to watch next

Rail volumes, highway capacity and contract renewal pricing should guide the next decision cycle. For CN, the balance between declining international traffic through Halifax and Prince Rupert and stronger Vancouver volumes will determine whether volume weakness continues. For UP, service performance alongside higher container volumes will show whether additional capacity is being managed effectively.

The STB’s response to CP’s request will also reveal how much weight regulators give to shipper testimony. Meanwhile, CSX’s new services and Baltimore’s double-stack capability provide more opportunities to test whether recent business gains can translate into sustained traffic.

Key takeaways

• Union Pacific led the four carriers with 27% intermodal revenue growth, while CSX and CPKC also posted double-digit increases.
• Canadian National offset falling volume with stronger revenue per RTM, illustrating the difference between traffic and yield.
• Tighter trucking capacity helped rail operators attract freight and conversions from the highway.
• Service performance, gateway mix and the proposed Union Pacific–Norfolk Southern acquisition remain important variables for shippers.