U.S. On-highway diesel averaged $6.38 a gallon on September 28, down from $6.53 the week prior, per the U.S. Energy Information Administration as reported by finance.yahoo.com. Spot rates on the three main equipment types sat well above their nine-year seasonal norms during the week beginning September 13, based on DAT figures cited by Trucking Dive.
The squeeze lands hardest on carriers locked into agreements signed before fuel spiked. At a Wall Street Journal event on September 22, Chevron CFO Eimear Bonner warned that prices are likely to stay elevated until shipping through the Strait of Hormuz becomes more predictable and additional refining capacity returns at scale.
At a Glance
- U.S. Average on-highway diesel: $6.38/gallon on September 28, 2026.
- Spot rates ran 20% higher than seasonal norms for dry vans, 28% for reefer, and 25% for flatbed.
- Trailer orders hit 24,144 units in August, up 43% from July (FTR data).
- DAT load postings climbed 16% the week of September 13, versus 8% more truck postings.
- North Dakota and Texas have loosened dyed-diesel rules for certain users.
Why Diesel Is Back in the Boardroom
Diesel is no longer just an ops line item. With national average prices above $6 a gallon and the Strait of Hormuz still unpredictable, finance teams are now modeling fuel as a material contract variable.
Bonner noted that early-September signs of improvement on Hormuz shipping are not enough on their own. Supply pressure is compounded by Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, which U.S. Officials have publicly pushed to stop because of the global fuel impact. Refined-product exports from the Gulf have bounced back faster than expected, per The Wall Street Journal, but that cushion has not yet shown up at the pump.
Carriers, meanwhile, are caught between rate sheets written months ago and a fuel market that moves week to week. Calls for a trucker stoppage on October 1 have added noise, though major industry groups say they are not involved. The bigger story is a carrier base quietly recalculating whether each lane still makes money.
What It Means for You
For Israeli shippers routing freight through European or U.S. Lanes under long-term agreements, the message is direct: the carrier may be losing money on your lane right now.
Surcharges typically adjust weekly, tied to the EIA diesel price, according to American Trucking Associations chief economist Bob Costello. That cadence is the killer. A carrier that fills up the day after a midweek spike absorbs the gap until the next adjustment kicks in.
For shippers, the practical move is to ask carriers where their breakeven sits on your lanes. If the answer is uncomfortable, you either accept a rate bump now or risk the carrier walking at renewal. A modest concession today is cheaper than sourcing a replacement in a tight market.
A Practical Example
Say you run a midsized Israeli 3PL with a U.S. Truckload deal signed earlier in 2026 for dry van service, plus a fuel surcharge tied to weekly EIA pricing. Diesel has held above $6 for weeks. Your carrier's surcharge formula was built for a much lower baseline. On paper, they are protected. In practice, the weekly cadence means they swallow midweek spikes, and their accountant is now telling them to walk.
Your move: open a conversation. Offer a per-mile bump in exchange for a six-month extension with a quarterly review tied to a diesel index. You lock capacity through year-end, and the carrier recovers margin without burning the relationship.
Our Analysis
This is a carrier-friendly freight market wearing a fuel cost crisis on top. Spot rates sit above seasonal norms because capacity is tighter than demand, not because freight volumes are booming. Layer a fuel shock on top, and you get the worst kind of squeeze: carriers losing money on locked rates while shippers face sticker shock at renewal.
Who benefits: carriers with flexible agreements and large fleets that can drop underperforming lanes. Who loses: small carriers and owner-operators with thin margins, plus shippers who assumed contract rates included fuel protection.
Trailer orders jumping 43% in August tell you something. Carriers see enough margin on the horizon to invest. That is a bullish signal for capacity coming back online in 2027, which would soften spot rates.
Bottom Line
Talk to your carriers now, before renewal season. Fuel math will not get friendlier in the near term, and silent exposure is the worst exposure.
Key takeaways
- Audit every freight contract for fuel surcharge cadence versus your carrier's fill cycle.
- Open renewal talks early when diesel sits above $6 a gallon.
- Build a diesel-index trigger into any new contract longer than six months.
- Treat trailer order data as a leading indicator for capacity returning in 2027.
Frequently asked questions
How high is U.S. Diesel right now?
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported $6.38 per gallon on September 28, 2026, down from $6.53 the week before.
Why are spot freight rates above seasonal norms?
Capacity tightened faster than freight demand recovered. Load postings rose 16% the week of September 13 while truck postings rose only 8%, per DAT data.
What are states doing about diesel costs?
North Dakota and Texas have eased dyed-diesel restrictions for specific users, trimming state-level fuel taxes temporarily.
Should shippers renegotiate contracts now?
Yes. With spot rates 20-28% above seasonal averages and diesel above $6, carriers locked into pre-spike contracts are losing money. Early talks cost less than late surprises.